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Has the "Battle of Hormuz" begun? Freight rates on Europe & Mediterranean routes keep rising.
Release time：
2026-03-25
Browsing：174次
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have triggered spillover geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a notable divergence in the international container shipping market. The latest SCFI index stood at 1706.95 points, falling 0.2% to end a three-session rising streak.
Performance varied sharply across the four major ocean routes: freight rates on the US West Coast and US East Coast routes dropped by 8.67% and 6.07% respectively, mainly due to supply-demand imbalance (with loading rates at only 70%) coupled with stalled long-term contract negotiations. In contrast, rates on the Europe, Mediterranean and Persian Gulf routes rose against the trend by 1.11% to 4.43%. Among them, the Persian Gulf route saw a short-term disconnect between quoted rates and actual demand due to abnormal capacity structure.The current pullback is considered a technical correction, as the overall recovery in market demand remains limited. Although shipping alliances have signaled rate increases, the actual implementation remains to be seen. In the short term, with ongoing geopolitical disruptions, the shipping market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern.The medium-to-long-term freight rate trend will depend on the pace of cargo volume recovery, progress in long-term contract negotiations, and developments in the Middle East energy situation. Among the intensifying market divergence, close attention should be paid to capacity adjustments in the Persian Gulf and the process of re-balancing supply and demand on the US-bound routes.
Performance varied sharply across the four major ocean routes: freight rates on the US West Coast and US East Coast routes dropped by 8.67% and 6.07% respectively, mainly due to supply-demand imbalance (with loading rates at only 70%) coupled with stalled long-term contract negotiations. In contrast, rates on the Europe, Mediterranean and Persian Gulf routes rose against the trend by 1.11% to 4.43%. Among them, the Persian Gulf route saw a short-term disconnect between quoted rates and actual demand due to abnormal capacity structure.The current pullback is considered a technical correction, as the overall recovery in market demand remains limited. Although shipping alliances have signaled rate increases, the actual implementation remains to be seen. In the short term, with ongoing geopolitical disruptions, the shipping market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern.The medium-to-long-term freight rate trend will depend on the pace of cargo volume recovery, progress in long-term contract negotiations, and developments in the Middle East energy situation. Among the intensifying market divergence, close attention should be paid to capacity adjustments in the Persian Gulf and the process of re-balancing supply and demand on the US-bound routes.