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Red Sea Resumption and Overcapacity
Release time：
2026-01-07
Browsing：160次
Analyst Lars Jensen forecasts that the container shipping industry in 2026 will be more predictable than in 2025. There is currently no imminent threat of strikes at U.S. ports, while strikes at European ports are more common. Liner company cooperation on east-west trades remains stable, but policy uncertainty persists in the United States, pending rulings such as the Supreme Court's decision on Trump-era tariffs and other non-tariff issues. Furthermore, the vote on the "IMO Net-Zero Framework" has been postponed. Donald Trump's threats of retaliation against countries supporting the green transition plan have introduced greater uncertainty into shipping decarbonization.
The most significant potential change for the container market in 2026 could be the "resumption of Red Sea transits," with the period following the Lunar New Year identified as the optimal window. Carriers like CMA and Maersk have already taken initial steps, with more expected to follow. A resumption is anticipated to cause severe congestion at European ports, requiring several months to alleviate. The "Red Sea resumption" is viewed as a manifestation of the market's "normalization" and is considered inevitable. Following the resumption, the shorter sailing distances are expected to lead to a temporary 12% decrease in global demand. Consequently, "overcapacity" is projected to be the dominant theme for 2027-2028.
The most significant potential change for the container market in 2026 could be the "resumption of Red Sea transits," with the period following the Lunar New Year identified as the optimal window. Carriers like CMA and Maersk have already taken initial steps, with more expected to follow. A resumption is anticipated to cause severe congestion at European ports, requiring several months to alleviate. The "Red Sea resumption" is viewed as a manifestation of the market's "normalization" and is considered inevitable. Following the resumption, the shorter sailing distances are expected to lead to a temporary 12% decrease in global demand. Consequently, "overcapacity" is projected to be the dominant theme for 2027-2028.